[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Surged Sharply to Break Through 130,000 yuan/mt on December 30, as the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council Released the 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan

SMM Nickel December 30:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," which will take effect on January 1, 2026. To enhance the linkage effect of domestic and international markets and resources and expand the supply of high-quality goods, provisional import tariff rates lower than the most-favored-nation rates will be applied to 935 items in 2026.

(2) The news communique of the China-Cambodia-Thailand Fuxian Meeting was released. According to the communique, the foreign ministers and military department heads of China, Cambodia, and Thailand held a meeting at Fuxian Lake in Yuxi, Yunnan Province, China, from December 28 to 29, 2025.

Spot Market:

On December 30, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 128,400-136,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 132,550 yuan/mt, up 850 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,000-7,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 7,250 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -200-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) trended lower during the night session, closing down 0.81%. Prices strengthened in the morning session, with a sharp rise again breaking through the 130,000 yuan/mt level. As of the midday close, it was quoted at 132,200 yuan/mt, up 3.71%.

Nickel prices are expected to continue fluctuating between "expectations of supply contraction due to Indonesia's policy tightening" and "the reality of high inventory and weak demand." The fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract may remain at 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.